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49ers mailbag: Could there be a Brock Purdy-Trey Lance QB competition next season?

The 49ers have clinched a spot in the postseason. So naturally readers’ minds have jumped to January, February and beyond.

Thank you very much for these forward-looking questions, which have been slightly modified for content.

Do you think the 49ers will be fully invested in the No. 2 seed race or will they start to see star players like Nick Bosa, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey being rotated out of the field more? — Allan B.

I think they will go full bore for the No. 2 seed, which could mean the difference between playing two (or even three) home games vs. one. Additionally, there’s a risk that in taking your foot even slightly off the accelerator you’ll be too sluggish when the playoffs begin. Kyle Shanahan will guard against that.

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Still, if there’s nothing to be gained in the season finale against the Cardinals, that seems like a great time to give guys like Bosa, McCaffrey, Kittle and Arik Armstead a mini bye and to give Deebo Samuel one more week to heal. (I’d put Trent Williams in that mix, too, if he wasn’t so essential in guarding the quarterback’s blind side).

Is Shanahan’s play calling improving or are the players getting better? I mean the team has looked pretty good the last few games. — Tree B.

I’m going with C: Both.

I thought Shanahan’s play calling in Seattle was the best of the season. I also think the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo has prompted everyone to sharpen his own game slightly. The aggregate of that is significant. (Also, don’t underestimate Armstead’s return to the lineup.)

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

49ers minutia minute: One play underscored Kyle Shanahan's trust in Brock Purdy

Happy holidays, Matt! It seems like Brock Purdy isn’t taking many sacks. Is that a combo of offensive Line play, his release, both, or something else? — Matt W.

I think it’s another all-of-the-above situation, and you can throw in play calling and having McCaffrey as an outlet, too. Against the Seahawks, for example, Purdy held onto the ball for 2.99 seconds per pass attempt, according to Next Gen Stats. That’s a high number. But it wasn’t because he had nowhere to go with the ball. It was a combination of good pass protection and excellent play fakes — many utilizing McCaffrey — that had the defense going in the wrong direction and that bought extra time to throw.

So what’s the final bonus tally/salary cap implications for Garoppolo? Probably made over half his bonuses? — David L.

Yes, I think that’s right. Whether/how much Garoppolo plays in the postseason obviously has a large bearing, but I have him at $3.58 million in bonuses to date.

The full breakdown of #49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s new contract, which has been filed with the NFL and NFLPA. The deal has a max value of $15.45 million. pic.twitter.com/nsSUWpOOCy

— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) August 30, 2022

I saw at least one reporter tweet very confidently that if Garoppolo comes back for the playoffs it will be in a backup role behind Purdy. Is that a serious thought given how well Garoppolo has played this year and given the playoff experience disparity between the two? — Robert M.

Be wary of he who claims to know the future. Also, be wary of he who speaks in maxims. I think it will have everything to do with what the situation is at that time.

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Do you think there’s a good chance that it’s a QB competition headed into camp between Purdy and Trey Lance? It would help as far as extending Bosa and hopefully Brandon Aiyuk. — Michael D.

I think that’s a good call with perhaps a reasonably-priced veteran — hey, why not Josh Johnson? — thrown into the mix. It’s not just Bosa and Aiyuk. There are several other prominent players to consider paying (see below). But, again, I think the 49ers will make all of those decisions based on what happens over the next month … perhaps month and a half.

What would Purdy need to do between now and next fall to unseat Lance as the starting QB? Assuming Lance is fully healthy, is that a possibility? — Robert E.

If a Purdy-led team wins the Super Bowl — and there’s a 90 percent chance he’s the game’s MVP if that happens — he’d probably unseat Lance by mid-February. But, and I can’t stress this enough, a lot of things are bound to happen in the next month. Heck, the 49ers can barely go a week without a cataclysmic event.

Of the realistic potential first-round matchups, who do the 49ers most want to play in Round 1 and who do they least want to play? — Pat M.

They would never say, of course. And the upcoming game against the Commanders will go a long way in revealing what kind of first-round matchup they’d be. But the teams I’d preferably want to avoid if I’m the 49ers are the Lions (because they’ve gotten hot in the second half of the season and will have real confidence should they make the playoffs) followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (because they have a Hall of Fame quarterbacks whereas the other teams have decidedly middling quarterbacks).

And, yes, I know what the 49ers just did to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. San Francisco will be heavily favored against any Round 1 opponent. I just think removing the specter of a cherry-on-top-of-his-career performance from Brady or Aaron Rodgers would be the 49ers’ preference.

If Javon Kinlaw does practice this week, how do you believe they will play him? Do you think they’ll use the three-week window and hope he plays in the wild-card game or will he get snaps before then? A top-15 pick as a rotational guy (at least) would be nice. — Jose B.

Obviously, they’ll want to see how he responds to a series of practices before bringing him back from injured reserve. My guess is that he has a light practice this week, a heavier one next and then plays 10 or so snaps in the finale against the Cardinals.

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If he comes out of that OK, the 49ers could have the following defensive linemen available for the first game of the postseason: Bosa, Armstead, Kinlaw, Samson Ebukam, Kevin Givens, Charles Omenihu, Kerry Hyder Jr., Jordan Willis and Drake Jackson. Not too shabby.

Bosa is having an incredible season, but are the 49ers disappointed in the lack of production, mainly sacks, on the other side? — Sunny D.

Yes, I’d have to think they were looking for more. Ebukam has 4 1/2 sacks, which was his sack total in each of the last three seasons. There’s still time to improve on that, of course, but I’m sure the 49ers were hoping for more of a breakout season for Ebukam given his experience at the position and the attention opponents give his counterpart, Bosa.

One of the reasons Ebukam he was a nice free-agent pickup in 2021 was because he’d played in every game the previous four seasons (and he played in every game in 2021, too). This year he missed two games and has been dealing with Achilles tendonitis or a quadriceps issue since midseason. Those issues have undoubtedly tamped down his production.

What are your thoughts on Drake Jackson? He’s been so quiet after his strong start to the year. Thanks! — Jason M.

It’s true. That might be because he’s playing fewer snaps than he was in the first part of the season. That seems to correspond with Willis’ return to the lineup in mid-November. While the 49ers have had all sorts of issues at defensive tackle, the defensive end spot has been deep for the last month with Bosa, Ebukam, Willis, Jackson, Omenihu and Hyder available at that spot and with Kemoko Turay in reserve on the practice squad. All of which is to say, I don’t think there are any issues with Jackson. It’s just that he isn’t getting as many opportunities as he was earlier in the year.

The question is, what happens in 2023? Ebukam, Willis, Omenihu, Hyder and Turay only are under contract through this season. Which defensive ends will the 49ers bring back for 2023? And do they think Jackson is ready for a starter role — essentially Ebukam’s 2022 role — opposite Bosa?

The 49ers’ relative health at edge rusher has kept rookie Drake Jackson from having a big role this season. (Cary Edmondson / USA Today)

What positions of need do you think the 49ers will address in the draft and free agency? — Jeffrey W.

Looking ahead to next year’s draft, does it make sense for the 49ers to draft Jake Moody as their future kicker? — Manu S.

I think the name of the game will be filling holes left by free-agent departures. As noted above, a lot of defensive linemen are heading for free agency with Hassan Ridgeway, Maurice Hurst, Akeem Spence and Givens (RFA) also part of that list.

At offensive tackle, both Mike McGlinchey and Colton McKivitz (RFA) are heading for free agency. Are the 49ers ready to turn over that position to McKivitz or Jaylon Moore? Some decisions have to be made there.

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The team also has three free safeties — Jimmie Ward, Tashaun Gipson Sr. and Tarvarius Moore — heading for free agency. Talanoa Hufanga ought to be a mainstay for years. But how do the 49ers complement him?

Finally, Robbie Gould isn’t signed beyond this season and I doubt he’ll come cheap for 2023. Do the 49ers say goodbye to their trusted veteran and take one of the top kickers in the draft with one of their late third-round picks?

What do you think is the main reason the run game has improved so dramatically? Is it McCaffrey/Jordan Mason getting comfortable with the system or is it the O-line improving at run blocking and the scheme? — Mason M.

I think it’s mainly the latter. The 49ers’ run-blocking scheme is very specific and simply takes time and repetitions to master. The 49ers began the season with three offensive linemen — Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel and Spencer Burford — who simply didn’t have a lot of game repetitions. Today, Brendel has 910 offensive snaps, Banks has 902 and Burford has 591.

It also doesn’t hurt that defensive lines — the Buccaneers’ and Seahawks’ jump out in this regard — are banged up and worn down at this point in the season.

Who is the most improved player on defense, offense, special teams? — Rick D.

Defense: Deommodore Lenoir. Quarterbacks have a ho-hum 88.3 passer rating when targeting him this season and he’s allowed exactly one touchdown.

Offense: Banks. Remember when everyone wanted Banks blasted into outer space? It’s a good lesson in snap-judging rookies.

Special teams: Tarvarius Moore. He’s been really good as a gunner and coverage man this season. Mitch Wishnowsky must be recognized here, too. Not having to handle kickoffs appears to have made a big difference in his punting.

Can we declare an indefinite moratorium on using “Purdy” to be synonymous with “pretty,” e.g., “That last series was Purdy good”?  It’s officially wince-worthy. — Lee F.

Agreed. Then again, reader Ololo 3 (in the comments section) had this gem:

I wanna Brock and roll all night/

and Purdy every day

That’s pure gold.

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Which teams seem better/more fun to hang out with, the 2011-2014 Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers or 2019-2022 Shanahan 49ers? — Jake T.

It depends on whether you think waking up shirtless in a dumpster outside of Merced is fun.

What’s the best football-related Christmas gift Santa has ever brought you? — Christoffer A.

In 1979 Santa somehow got an out-of-town team’s uniform — helmet, jersey, pants, pads, the works — under the tree in Centreville, Va. This was before the Internet. In fact, they may have still been delivering items via ox cart back then. And yet Santa delivered.

For my own personal safety, I can’t reveal which team it was (I was young and foolish, still searching), but it was the greatest gift an NFL-mad boy could ever get.

Thank you, Santa (she reads these mailbags religiously).

(Top photo of Trey Lance and Brock Purdy: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images)

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Patria Henriques

Update: 2024-05-08